Jeffrey Kiang, an analyst at capital markets and investments group CLSA Ltd, estimates that the Macau gaming industry could generate US$29.2 billion in gross gaming revenues in 2024. As GGRAsia reports, such a handle would represent almost 30 percent growth in comparison to the level reached by Macau gaming operators in 2023.
2019 Benchmark Figure:
As reported, Kiang’s 2024 gross gaming revenue estimate would also stand for about 82 percent of the 2019 benchmark figures. In fact, Macau’s gaming market reached its peak in 2019 to decline over the subsequent years due to pandemic-driven gaming facility closures. The market re-opened on 8 January 2023 to rapidly grow during the year. But the stakeholders and analysts might consider the market fully recovered once it has reached the 2019 levels. According to the source, CLSA anticipates that Macau’s casino industry will continue to fall behind the benchmark levels to see a modest increase in 2025 as well.
US$29.2 Billion Handle Expected in 2024:
In 2019, the city’s operators generated around US$35.6 billion in gross gaming revenues. The institution reportedly expects that the industry could reach 82 percent of the 2019 tally in 2024, or US$29.2 billion, to be followed by the 89 percent stake in 2025. Kiang told the source: “By segment, we forecast 2024’s overall mass GGR (including premium mass, but excluding slot machines) to increase 31 percent year-on-year to US$23.2 billion (or HKD181.2 billion, being 18 percent above 2019’s level).”
At the same time, the estimated 2024 handle of US$29.2 billion would reportedly represent a 28.4 percent growth from the US$22.75 billion handled by the industry in 2023. According to GGRAsia, the most significant contribution to the 2024 annual growth may be seen in the first half of the year likely to be featured by increased visits from mainland China. Kiang reportedly expects that this major driver of the Macau’s gaming and hospitality sector will continue the recovery towards pre-pandemic levels.
The analyst reportedly said: “Mathematically, the first half of 2023 was still a low base for Macau’s GGR, as it took time for Macau to solve the labor shortage bottleneck and [for] transportation capacity from [mainland] China to ramp… We expect holiday GGR performance [in 2024] to be robust – but that would be quite even” in terms of split, between “the first half (Chinese New Year and May Golden Week) and the second half (summer holiday and October Golden Week)”.
Market Leaders:
As GGRAsia reports, the precise 2023 calendar year gross gaming revenue figures are still expected. For reference purposes, the current 2023 reports stand at US$22.75 billion to represents a 64 percent share of the 2019 GGR level. As a sequence of the total, Macau casino operators Sands China Ltd, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and MGM China Holdings Ltd are reportedly expected to have taken the largest market share in 2023 with gross revenue figures estimated by CLSA at about US$6.1 billion, US$4.14 billion, and US$3.31 billion, respectively. CLSA reportedly expects Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment to maintain the largest market share in 2024.
With the 2024 gross gaming revenue forecast set at US$29.2 billion, CLSA reportedly estimates that the Macau gaming sector’s EBITDA will reach US$8.5 billion to represent 92 percent of the 2019 level.
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